This week’s most significant data offered preliminary numbers for manufacturing and services PMI (Purchasing Managers Index). Both can serve as a forward indicator for the economy while providing insight into the current state of the cost of living for the service industry. While manufacturing met an expected rise for the end of October, services saw a contraction, falling to 46.6 from 49.3. Readings below 50.0 can be a sign of a downturn for the economy, particularly given the time of the year.
What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – October 23, 2023
This week featured the usual retail sales report which shows consumer demand and as well as an indicator of the velocity of money, not only for consumers but business to business as well. An increase would show an increase in national and local increase in economic activity, which is important as we move into Q4 of the year; where the holiday season is expected to see an increase in consumer activity.
Retail Sales
Retail sales have exceeded expectations this month showing month-to-month increases across the board:
What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – October 16, 2023
Last week’s economic report schedule included notable reports with the CPI & Core CPI in addition to PPI and Core PPI. Many markets are keeping a close eye on the inflation numbers for the U.S. as well as many other parts of the world to help guide their policies.
Other notable reports were MBA Mortgage Applications Index and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Report (Prelim.)
Consumer Price Index
With current inflation data, the Federal Reserve has hinted that they are close to ending their rate-hiking cycle for the future. This reflects a greater optimism for a soft landing in many markets.
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